WHAT’S THE LATEST

Update as of May 4: The situation across the Middle East has significantly escalated following direct Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE on Monday, May 4, marking the most severe operational disruption since the crisis began more than 65 days ago.

Summary of May 4 events:

  • Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drone attacks on UAE territory, intercepted by UAE air defenses.
  • Explosions and interceptions reported across Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah areas, with debris causing civilian infrastructure damage and reported injuries.
    • Immediate, short-notice precautionary airspace closures and heavy flow restrictions implemented across UAE airspace, particularly affecting Sharjah (SHJ).
  • Reversal of recovery momentum following the UAE’s reopening on May 2, reintroducing acute volatility.

This escalation follows prolonged disruption triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation, including strikes on energy infrastructure, diplomatic missions, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

SEKO continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as new information becomes available.

WHAT WE KNOW

Closed or Restricted Airspaces

Civilian airspace across much of the Middle East remains closed or heavily restricted. Although UAE hubs rebounded after the May 2 reopening—often exceeding 1,000 daily departures—the May 4 missile and drone attacks have reversed momentum and are sustaining a 12–16% global air cargo capacity shortfall, with 12–13% directly tied to closures.

  • Full closures:
    • Iran
    • Iraq
    • Israel (largely closed to routine civil aviation; limited pre-approved cargo, repatriation, and select special permission flights permitted)
    • Kuwait
    • Syria
  • Partial/restricted closures:
    • Qatar
    • Bahrain
    • Jordan
    • Saudi Arabia (partial)
    • Pakistan (partial commercial airspace restrictions)
    • UAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah) due to the May 4 missile and drone attacks
  • Other affected areas:
    • Lebanon and Oman (indirect operational impacts)
    • Surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors remain a de facto no-fly zone for most commercial traffic

Grounded Operations – Major Airlines

Widespread cancellations continue across regional and global carriers:

  • Emirates: Achieved partial recovery ahead of May 4 attacks. Now experiencing immediate delays and cancellations.
  • Qatar Airways: Relief and select commercial flights active; full commercial operations remain heavily restricted due to airspace limitations.
  • Etihad Airways: Improving resumption; directly impacted by May 4 attacks.
  • Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air: Limited services with many routes suspended.
  • FedEx & Other Carriers: Ongoing suspensions or heavy cancellations to affected hubs. May 4 attacks adding additional widespread disruptions.

Operational Impact

The May 4 direct attacks on UAE territory and resulting interceptions have reintroduced significant short-term risk and disruption despite the recent reopening.

  • Reroutes add 2–5 hours, with 30–50% higher fuel burn cutting payload and cargo volume per flight.
  • Hubs: Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah had returned close to pre-disruption operations (70–90%) following the May 2 reopening, now experiencing temporary halts, delays, and renewed backlogs, especially for time-sensitive cargo.
  • Fuel Scarcity: Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since February 28 to $150–$200+ per barrel.
    • U.S. jet fuel is up ~85–95% per gallon to ~$4.57–$4.88.
    • Airlines continue applying fuel surcharges, with some trimming schedules.
    • Price changes typically take 4–6 weeks to flow through to operations.
    • Emerging scarcity concerns are contributing to secondary capacity pressure.

Global Cargo Context

Middle East carriers—including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air—support approximately 25–30% of global air cargo volume annually. Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serve as primary transit hubs for Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf trade flows.

The UAE reopening on May 2 was a significant relief, but the May 4 escalation has reintroduced serious uncertainty and potential capacity shocks.

Specific Trade Lane Impacts

  • Asia-Europe: Most severely affected; reroutes and fuel costs drive high rate spikes.
  • Asia-Africa: Ongoing significant disruption.
  • Asia-Americas / Europe-Americas / U.S. lanes: Indirect pressure with rates up 15–35%, and possible added delays.

Cargo Prioritization During Crises

During severe capacity constraints, carriers prioritize shipments based on urgency, value, and contractual agreements:

  • Humanitarian aid
  • Military cargo
  • Perishables and pharmaceuticals
  • High-value goods and premium services
  • Contracted premium customers

General cargo often faces delays or space denials. Shippers should leverage premium or priority services where possible.

Capacity & Pricing Outlook

  • Key trade lane capacities remain 20–30% below normal.
  • Spot rates have surged 50–100% on rerouted paths.
  • Continued reliance on Istanbul/Frankfurt alternatives or ocean freight expected.
  • Sectors like diamonds, tech, pharma, and perishables remain most vulnerable.

The May 4 attacks may cause short-term spikes in rates, delays, and cancellations, particularly affecting UAE-dependent flows.

SEKO’S GUIDANCE - Regional Contingency Solutions

Israel:

SEKO can support shipments into Israel through the following routing options:

  • Air to Amman (AMM), Jordan, then land transport via Sheikh Hussein Bridge to Israeli terminals.
  • Air to Athens (ATH) or Larnaca (LCA), followed by sea freight into Israel.
  • Air freight solutions via Saudi Arabia are also available.

UAE:

For shipments into or out of the UAE, SEKO offers:

  • Air freight via Oman (Muscat Airport) supporting both imports and exports from Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi and other emirates.
    • Air freight solutions via Saudi Arabia are also available.
  • Sea freight via Oman for UAE and Qatar, with vessels supporting up to 400 containers.

If you have questions, please contact your SEKO representative or email hello@sekologistics.com.