Client Advisory: Ongoing Operational Disruptions Across Middle East Airspace – Updated May 1

WHAT’S THE LATEST

Update as of May 1: Airspace shutdowns across the Middle East continue following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation – including strikes on energy infrastructure, diplomatic missions, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has now extended beyond 62 days, with continued limited military activity, intermittent missile and drone threats, and no full de-escalation in sight. 

Many airspaces remain closed or heavily restricted, though partial recoveries have improved operations at key hubs like Dubai. This sustains a 12-17% global air cargo capacity shortfall versus pre-crisis levels (12-13% directly tied to closures). Strait of Hormuz effects continue shifting volume to air routes.

Key Developments:

• Significant operational recovery at UAE hubs: Daily flights at Dubai (DXB) and other UAE airports have rebounded strongly, with Emirates, flydubai, Etihad, and Air Arabia now exceeding 1,000 daily departures in recent days — a major improvement from the low dozens per day in early March. 
  
  • Emirates is operating to ~127–140 destinations (close to pre-crisis levels of ~140), though some long-haul routes remain suspended.
• Cargo metrics: Global air cargo capacity shortfall has eased to 12-17% as reroutes and partial recoveries take effect.
  
  • Spot rates remain elevated but stabilizing (South Asia-Europe +70%, South Asia-North America +58%).
• Fuel price and scarcity impact: Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since February 28 (from ~$99–$100 per barrel to $150–$200+ per barrel; U.S. jet fuel ~$4.57–$4.88 per gallon, up ~85–95%). 
  
  • Airlines continue applying fuel surcharges, with some trimming schedules to conserve fuel. Market price changes typically take 4–6 weeks to fully flow through to carrier operations (due to hedging, regulatory filings, and planning cycles).

SEKO continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as new information becomes available.

WHAT WE KNOW

Closed or Restricted Airspaces

Civilian air traffic, including cargo operations, faces severe disruptions due to the following countries implementing full or partial closures:

• Full closures:
• Iran
• Iraq
• Israel (largely closed to routine civil aviation; limited pre-approved cargo, repatriation, and select special permission flights permitted)
• Kuwait
• Syria
• Partial/restricted closures:
  • However, operations are tightly controlled through specific safe corridors, fixed entry/exit points, flow management measures, and higher separation standards.
  • These constraints continue to limit overflight capacity and reduce scheduling flexibility and payloads despite strong flight recovery.
  • Similar corridor-based restrictions apply in Qatar, Bahrain, and parts of Saudi Arabia.
• Jordan (nightly restrictions from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m.)
• Pakistan (partial commercial airspace restrictions)
• United Arab Emirates (UAE), including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah is partially open and usable.
• Other affected areas:
• Lebanon and Oman (indirect operational impacts)
• Surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors remain a de facto no-fly zone for most commercial traffic

Grounded Operations – Major Airlines

Widespread cancellations continue across regional and global carriers:

• Emirates: Partial recovery progressing, with approximately 50–70% of pre-crisis services operating to 127-140 destinations, compared to 140 pre-crisis.
• Freighter and belly capacity has improved, but still below full capacity on many routes.
• Qatar Airways: Relief and select commercial flights active; full commercial operations remain heavily restricted due to airspace limitations.
• 29 Boeing 777 freighters remain largely idle, significantly impacting global cargo capacity.
• Etihad Airways: Partial operations resumed, with limited passenger and cargo flights, primarily on select Europe and Asia routes.
• Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air: Limited services with many routes still suspended.
• FedEx: Ongoing suspensions or heavy cancellations to affected hubs.

Operational Impact

• Suspensions continue to impact dedicated freighters and belly capacity, which is critical for 40-60% of regional freight. 
• Reroutes add 2-5 hours, with 30-50% higher fuel burn cutting payload and cargo volume per flight. 
• Hubs remain partially idle with persistent backlogs.
  
  • Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi hubs at 50-60% reduced capacity, with ground handling limited and warehouses backlogged.
    • Significant impacts to perishables, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and ecommerce.
• Fuel Scarcity: Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since February 28 to $150-$200+ per barrel, increasing fuel burn sensitivity on rerouted flights (30–50% higher consumption) and reducing usable payload, particularly on long-haul operations. 
  
  • U.S. jet fuel is up ~85-95% per gallon to ~$4.57-$4.88.
    Airlines continue applying fuel surcharges, with some trimming schedules to conserve fuel. 
  • Market price changes typically take 4–6 weeks to fully flow through to carrier operations (due to hedging, regulatory filings, and planning cycles).
  • Emerging scarcity concerns are contributing to secondary capacity pressure.
• Route Cancellations:
  
  • International long-haul flights are more heavily affected due to higher fuel burn on rerouted paths (30-50% increase), forcing carriers to trim non-essential long-haul frequencies and reduce payload. 
    
    • Airlines like United, Air India, Delta, and European carriers have cut ~5% or more of planned routes.
  • Domestic flights are impacted to a lesser extent, as some regional carriers have reduced off-peak domestic services for conservation, but airspace/corridor limits are the dominant factor.
    

Global Cargo Context 

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

Specific Trade Lane Impacts

• Asia-Europe: Capacity on Middle East–dependent routings is down 26-39%, experiencing delays, payload cuts, and rates surging 50-80%.
  
  • South Asia–Europe spot rates remain approximately 70% elevated.
• Asia-Africa: Many flows rely on Gulf hubs for transit, resulting in 20–30% capacity reductions, routing challenges, and expected rate increases.
  • Backlogs are building for perishables and high-value goods.
• Intra-Middle East: Operations remain largely halted in affected areas, with no viable short-term alternatives, driving indefinite delays and limited shifts to ground transport where conditions allow.
• Asia-Americas: While these routes typically bypass the Middle East, the 12-17% global capacity drop is tightening trans-Pacific space and pushing rates up 18–38%.
  
  • Rerouted Asia–Europe cargo is spilling into Pacific capacity, creating additional competition and potential 1–4 day delays.
  • South Asia–North America spot rates remain approximately 58% elevated.
• Europe-Americas: Indirect pressure from global rerouting is driving 18–38% rate increases, especially as Europe handles diverted Asia-bound freight that strains westbound and trans-Atlantic lanes.
• U.S. Capacity and Rates: With minimal direct U.S.-Middle East impact, global shortfall is driving 18-38% rate increases on Asia-U.S. and Europe-U.S. trade lanes. 
  
  • As demand shifts, trans-Pacific/trans-Atlantic freighters are experiencing tighter capacity and 1-4 day delays.

Cargo Prioritization During Crises

During severe capacity constraints, carriers prioritize shipments based on urgency, value, and contractual agreements. Typically, airlines allocate space to the following:

• Humanitarian aid
• Military cargo
• Perishables (e.g., fresh produce) and pharmaceuticals (time- and temperature-sensitive)
• High-value goods, express bookings, and premium services (e.g., priority air or charter)
• Contracted premium customers or long-term contract holders are usually rebooked faster during disruptions.

General cargo often faces extended delays or space denials. Shippers with express, premium, or priority service agreements should leverage them now to secure capacity.

Capacity & Pricing Outlook

• Key trade lane capacities remain 20-30% below normal, driven by fuel and payload limits.
• Spot rates have surged 50-100% on rerouted paths, with further increases likely with backlogs.
• Expect continued reliance on Istanbul/Frankfurt alternatives or ocean where possible. 
• Sectors like diamonds, tech, pharma, and fresh produce remain most vulnerable.

SEKO’S GUIDANCE - Regional Contingency Solutions

Israel:

SEKO can support shipments into Israel through the following routing options:

• Air arrival into Amman (AMM), Jordan, followed by land transfer via the Sheikh Hussein Bridge to either an Israeli air or sea terminal, with final customs clearance at the selected terminal.
• Air arrival into Athens (ATH) or Larnaca (LCA), followed by sea freight to Israel and transfer to an Israeli air or sea terminal for final customs clearance.
• Air freight solutions are also available via Saudi Arabia.

UAE:

For shipments into or out of the UAE, SEKO offers the following alternatives:

• Air freight shipments into or out of Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, and the other emirates can be routed through Muscat Airport in Oman for both imports and exports.
  • Air freight solutions are also available via Saudi Arabia.
• Sea freight shipments into or out of the UAE or Qatar may be supported via Oman, using vessels with capacity for up to 400 containers – enabling continued movement of freight despite regional disruptions.

If you have questions, please reach out to your SEKO representative, or email us at hello@sekologistics.com.