How geopolitical and natural shocks reshape air and ocean networks: lessons from the Middle East and beyond

Disruption in global logistics is no longer a matter of if; it’s a matter of when and for how long. The Middle East disruption, which began on February 28, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliation, is an example that has triggered widespread airspace closures and security risks across key maritime corridors. More than six months later, air cargo capacity has partially recovered and schedules have been restored on many routes. However, the network that returned looks different from the one that existed before, and shippers are still absorbing the effects.

While the event itself is significant, the pattern it reveals extends far beyond one region and beyond geopolitics. Typhoons, low water on major inland waterways and other natural events set off the same chain reaction. Global supply chains are accustomed to disruption, but what’s constantly underestimated is the duration of its impact. In tightly balanced networks, even a single day of disruption can cascade into weeks of backlog, volatility and cost pressure, lingering well after routes reopen and schedules resume.

Headlines often focus on closures and rerouting, but the greater risk sits downstream: tightening capacity, unstable costs and network imbalances that take far longer to unwind. As disruption becomes a more consistent feature of global trade, understanding how it travels through the system is now critical to effective planning.

Getting Ahead of the Headlines: Early Warning Signs to Watch

Before disruptions fully register in news cycles, they first appear as subtle operational friction across the logistics ecosystem. Key indicators include:

  • Capacity tightening as carriers pull lift from affected regions or operate at reduced payloads
  • Schedule volatility driven by rerouting, longer transit times, weather closures and crew or port constraints
  • Surcharge behavior, including emergency, fuel or war-risk premiums layered on top of existing rates
  • Cargo prioritization as carriers allocate limited space to higher-yield or time-critical shipments

These signals often appear well before the broader market reacts, and they usually persist after conditions “stabilize” on paper.

Air Freight: Constraints in a Rewired Network

Prolonged airspace closures and rerouting across the Middle East fundamentally altered Gulf hubs and removed a meaningful share of global air cargo capacity. At peak disruption, global capacity decreased by 12%-18%, with far steeper cuts across the Middle East and South Asia corridors and key Asia-Europe routes.

Even as capacity recovers, the network that returns is different. Three shifts define it: 

  • Constrained capacity: Longer stage lengths, higher fuel burn and reduced frequencies on certain corridors limit payload and available space on the most efficient routings. Alternative gateways that absorb volume during peak disruption can keep a meaningful share of that traffic.
  • Reliability erosion: Extended flight times, disrupted hub banks, short-notice schedule changes and congestion at non-traditional transit points reduce predictability, especially for time-sensitive or high-value shipments. Schedule restoration does not fully translate into consistent transit times.
  • A structurally higher cost base: Even as emergency surcharges moderate, base rates on key lanes can remain elevated versus the pre-disruption baseline. Carriers are also managing allocations more tightly, which can make space harder to secure on short notice.

The result is an air freight environment where capacity normalization lags behind service restoration. Flights may resume, but consistency and reliability often take much longer to recover time-critical and high-value cargo. For shippers, the challenge is not simply whether flights are operating, but how consistently they can meet planned delivery windows.

The market also adapts, and the workarounds it builds can outlast the disruption that prompted them. In the wake of the Middle East disruption, SEKO is seeing a clear surge in Europe-bound cargo routed via the U.S. on sea-air solutions. This option can deliver approximately 40% cost savings versus traditional air routing while still offering acceptable transit times for many shippers. It is a practical response to ongoing capacity and pricing pressure on more direct Asia-Europe and Middle East-connected lanes.

Managing the Air Freight Ripple Effect

“In this environment, the single most important thing a shipper can do is commit early. Secure your space and firm allocations before you need them. Carriers are managing allocations tightly, and last-minute bookings are the highest risk position you can be in right now.” — Laurent Deneubourg, SEKO Vice President, Global Airfreight 

Additional considerations include:

  • Diversifying across multiple carriers and gateways
  • Building additional lead-time buffers for critical cargo
  • Exploring hybrid solutions where urgency allows

Ocean Freight: The Hidden Cost of Congestion

Ocean freight disruptions typically unfold more gradually than air freight disruptions, but their effects can be even harder to unwind.

Conflict-driven rerouting and port avoidance create a second set of challenges for ocean freight beyond the initial disruption. In fact, capacity reductions on far East–Middle East trade lanes reached approximately 25%–30%, compounding congestion and backlog risk across secondary “recovery ports.” When sailings are diverted or canceled, cargo doesn’t disappear; it gets discharged elsewhere, often at ports not designed to absorb sudden volume shifts. 

Why congestion lingers:

  • Port congestion and equipment imbalance: Containers discharged at end-of-voyage ports create backlogs that take weeks to clear, while recovery ports can lack the capacity to absorb sudden volume changes.
  • Schedule disruption across regions: Congestion in one part of the network quickly cascades to others, impacting services, berth availability and overall network reliability far beyond the original disruption zone.
  • Incremental and incidental costs: Emergency fuel surcharges, port congestion fees and more frequent bunker adjustments increase total landed costs, often with limited notice.

Fuel risk is a particular concern. With a significant share of the world’s bunker fuel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the prolonged Middle East disruption introduced uncertainty not only around vessel routing, but fuel sourcing and pricing across Asia and beyond.

Managing the Ocean Freight Ripple Effect

“Even when conditions start to stabilize, the downstream effects don’t disappear: cargo gets re-staged, recovery ports stay congested and schedules remain unreliable. With vessels sailing full and service availability fluctuating, ocean shippers need to plan shipments 3-4 weeks ahead, build buffer stock and diversify across ports, carriers and modes, while managing ongoing cost pressure from fuel surcharges and potential congestion fees.” — Nikki Doherty, SEKO U.K. & Ireland's Ocean Product Manager

Hybrid sea-air solutions are increasingly becoming part of contingency planning, as a targeted option when service continuity matters more than cost alone. 

When Nature Sets Off the Ripple

The ripple effects of disruption are not unique to geopolitical events. Typhoons that close ports and ground flights across Asia-Pacific, and low water on the Rhine that force barges to sail with lighter loads, can trigger the same downstream effects: tighter capacity, higher costs, more congestion and less schedule reliability. 

The impact also outlasts the event. The disruption is usually over before the recovery is done. Once a storm passes or water levels normalize, carriers and ports still have to clear backlogs, reposition equipment and rebuild schedule consistency. 

Predictability is where natural disruptions differ. Some, such as typhoon season or seasonal low water, can be forecasted. That extra lead time can give shippers room to adjust inventory positions, secure capacity and evaluate alternative routings before the event arrives. It does not eliminate risk, but it reduces exposure.

The Cost Flywheel: Why Volatility Persists

One of the most underestimated risks during disruption is how quickly cost compounds once fuel and capacity constraints interact. 

Emergency fuel surcharges layered on top of reduced capacity and more frequent pricing updates create a flywheel effect that can persist long after the initial event subsides. Quarterly pricing cycles give way to monthly or ad hoc adjustments, challenging procurement strategies built for more stable conditions.

Air freight shows how that plays out. More than six months into the Middle East disruption, emergency surcharges largely moderated, yet base rates on several key lanes remain above pre-disruption levels.

For shippers, this means forecasting and contract planning must account not only for rate levels, but also for rate volatility itself.

"If you lose both capacity and production inputs at the same time, you get supply and demand shocks simultaneously. That’s when the impact doesn’t just add up—it multiplies.” — Laurent Deneubourg, SEKO Vice President, Global Airfreight

A Practical Disruption Playbook

While no strategy eliminates risk entirely, shippers that plan for disruption as a structural condition, rather than a temporary anomaly, are far better positioned to navigate recurring volatility. Instead of planning around isolated events, they assume volatility will recur and design networks accordingly. This shift requires longer planning horizons, faster decision-making and a willingness to trade short-term efficiency for durability when conditions tighten.

The playbook holds whether the trigger is a geopolitical conflict or a storm: build flexibility into the network, diversify across gateways, carriers and modes, plan earlier and avoid overreliance on a single gateway, carrier or mode. Early commitment and firm allocations remain the highest-leverage actions available. For forecastable events, the advantage goes to shippers who use the lead time rather than wait for the forecast to become a closure. 

“Disruption is becoming a more consistent operating reality, regardless of the source. The companies that navigate it best are the ones that build resilience and flexibility into their supply chains before they need it.” — Laurent Deneubourg, SEKO Vice President, Global Airfreight

In today’s environment, resilience is less about predicting the next disruption and more about preparing for the ripple effect that follows.

SEKO’s teams are actively monitoring developments across every affected corridor. Contact your SEKO representative for real-time guidance, or read our latest Client Advisory.