Client Advisory: Ongoing Operational Disruptions Across Middle East Airspace – Updated March 3

WHAT’S THE LATEST

WHAT WE KNOW

Closed or Restricted Airspaces

Civilian air traffic, including cargo operations, faces severe disruptions due to the following countries implementing full or partial closures:

• Full closures:
  
  • Bahrain
  • Kuwait
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Qatar
  • Syria
• Partial closures:
  • Jordan (nightly restrictions from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m.)
  • Pakistan (partial commercial closure through 3/31)
  • Saudi Arabia (restrictions near Iraq and the Persian Gulf)
  • United Arab Emirates (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah impacted)
    
• Other affected areas:
  
  • Lebanon and Oman (indirect operational impacts)
  • Yemen and surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors have become significant commercial no-fly zones
    

Grounded Operations – Major Airlines

Widespread cancellations continue across regional and global carriers:

• Emirates: All operations to/from Dubai (DXB) suspended until at least 15:00 local time on 3/3, with extensions likely.
  
  • Impacts passenger, freighter, and belly cargo.
  • Limited repositioning flights operated on 3/2, but no full resumption.
• Qatar Airways: All flights to/from Doha (DOH) suspended indefinitely due to Qatari airspace closure.
  
  • Impacts 29 Boeing 777 freighters and extensive belly capacity. 
• Etihad Airways: All flights to/from Abu Dhabi (AUH) suspended until at least 14:00 local time on 3/3.
  • Some evacuation and cargo flights resumed selectively on 3/2.
• Saudia (Saudi Arabian Airlines): Extended cancellations to/from Amman, Kuwait, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Bahrain, Moscow, and Peshawar through 3/4.
  • Impacts passenger and cargo services.
• Lufthansa: To Dubai until 3/4; to Tel Aviv, Beirut, Amman, Erbil, Dammam, and Tehran until 3/8 – avoiding airspace over multiple countries.
• Wizz Air: All flights to/from Israel, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Amman, and Saudi Arabia through 3/7.
• Air India: All flights to/from UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Qatar through 3/3.
• United Airlines: To Dubai through 3/4; to Tel Aviv through 3/6.
• Delta Airlines: To Tel Aviv through 3/8.
• Kuwait Airways: Halted all flights to Iran and suspended routes to multiple Gulf and regional destinations including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.
  • Awaiting airspace clearance.
• Oman Air: Suspended flights to Baghdad and other routes.
• Gulf Air: Temporarily suspended all operations, including to Iraq and Jordan.
  • Awaiting clearance from Bahrain authorities for safe resumption.
• FedEx: Suspended services to/from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia; delays anticipated for adjacent regions.
• Other airlines with suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tel Aviv, etc.): British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Air France, KLM, IndiGo, Akasa Air, Turkish Airlines, Cathay Pacific, and American Airlines – with many extensions through mid-March.

Operational Impact

• Grounded Operations: Suspensions affect both dedicated freighters and belly-hold capacity on passenger aircraft – essential for high-volume shippers.
• Rerouting & Capacity Strain: Remaining flights are diverting via Turkey or over the Arabian Sea, adding 2-5 hours per leg.
  • The 30-50% increase in fuel burn not only elevates costs but also reduces payload capacity, limiting the volume of cargo that can be loaded per flight – even on rerouted services.
  • Passenger carriers, handling 40-60% of regional air freight, are experiencing ongoing cancellations and delays, further constraining overall lift.
• Hub Disruptions: Major cargo gateways like Dubai (the world's busiest cargo airport), Doha (Hamad International), and Abu Dhabi (Zayed) remain idle, with ground handling operations halted.
  • Warehouses are increasingly backlogged, posing risks to perishables, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and ecommerce shipments.
  • Some airports (e.g., Dubai, Abu Dhabi) sustained direct strikes, complicating recovery.
• Maritime Exposure: The Strait of Hormuz – the primary gateway to the Gulf –remains effectively closed, with vessel movement slowing significantly and multiple strike incidents reported.

Global Cargo Context

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

Specific Trade Lane Impacts

• Asia-Europe: Capacity on Middle East–dependent routings is down 26%, while direct rerouted capacity has increased 13–14%. 
  
  • Transit times are extended 1–3 hours, with rates surging due to scarcity and fuel costs.
• Asia-Africa: Many flows rely on Gulf hubs for transit, resulting in 20–30% capacity reductions, routing challenges, and expected rate increases. 
  
  • Backlogs are building for perishables and high value cargo.
• Intra-Middle East: Most operations remain halted with no viable short term alternatives, driving indefinite delays and limited shifts to ground transport where conditions allow.
• Asia-Americas: While these routes typically bypass the Middle East, the 18% global capacity drop is tightening trans Pacific space and pushing rates up 20–50%.
  
  • Rerouted Asia–Europe cargo is spilling into Pacific capacity, creating additional competition and potential 1–3 day delays.
• Europe-Americas: Indirect pressure from global rerouting is driving 20–50% rate increases, especially as Europe handles diverted Asia bound freight that strains westbound and trans Atlantic lanes.
• Impacts to U.S. Capacity and Rates: Although direct U.S.–Middle East volumes are limited, the global capacity crunch is creating volatility on U.S. inbound lanes from Asia and Europe. 
  
  • Spot rates may rise 20–50%, and trans Pacific freighters could face 1–3-day delays as shippers pivot from disrupted ocean routes via the Strait of Hormuz.

Cargo Prioritization During Crises

During severe capacity constraints, carriers prioritize shipments based on urgency, value, and contractual agreements. Typically, airlines allocate space to the following:

• Humanitarian aid
• Military cargo
• Perishables (e.g., fresh produce) and pharmaceuticals (time- and temperature-sensitive)
• High-value goods, express bookings, and premium services (e.g., priority air) 
• Contracted premium or long-term customers with long-term contract holders and premium shippers rebooked faster during disruptions. 

General cargo often faces extended delays or space denials. Shippers with express, premium, or priority service agreements should leverage them now to secure capacity.

SEKO'S GUIDANCE