WHAT’S THE LATEST

Update as of March 9: Airspace shutdowns across the Middle East continue following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation – including strikes on energy infrastructure, diplomatic missions, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has now entered its tenth day with no de-escalation in sight, and civilian airspace remains closed or severely restricted across the region.

As a result, thousands of flights have been canceled and global air cargo capacity has declined to 16-18% below normal levels, with 13% directly impacted by Middle East closures. Air freight rates are rising sharply due to rerouting, reduced payloads and fuel cost volatility. Global aviation fuel prices rose 3.6% last week to $99.40 per barrel, while U.S. jet fuel increased from $2.50 to $2.83 per gallon – driven by oil market volatility. Additional complications from the Strait of Hormuz closure could indirectly strain global supply chains, further shifting demand to air freight and exacerbating capacity issues. 

 

Disruptions may extend into mid‑March or longer if conflict conditions escalate.

SEKO continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as new information becomes available.

WHAT WE KNOW

Closed or Restricted Airspaces

Civilian air traffic, including cargo operations, faces severe disruptions due to the following countries implementing full or partial closures:

  • Full closures:
    • Bahrain
    • Kuwait
    • Syria
    • Iran
    • Iraq
    • Israel
    • Qatar
  • Partial closures:
    • United Arab Emirates (UAE), including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah
    • Jordan (daytime reopenings, but nightly restrictions from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m.)
    • Saudi Arabia (restrictions near Iraq and the Persian Gulf, with some easing in southern sectors)
    • Pakistan (partial commercial airspace closure through 3/31).
  • Other affected areas: 
    • Lebanon and Oman (indirect operational impacts)
    • Yemen and surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors have become significant commercial no-fly zones

These restrictions continue to disrupt overflight routes, inbound/outbound traffic, and key transit hubs, severely impacting Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf cargo flows. Increased GPS spoofing and jamming in the region add further operational risks.

 

Grounded Operations – Major Airlines

Widespread cancellations continue across regional and global carriers:

  • Emirates: Partial operations resumed, but many routes remain suspended due to ongoing airspace restrictions.
  • Qatar Airways: All flights to/from Doha (DOH) suspended indefinitely due to Qatari airspace closure.
    • Affects 29 Boeing 777 freighters and extensive belly capacity.
  • Etihad Airways: Partial operations resumed, with some freighter and evacuation flights operating selectively.
    • Many services remain halted.
  • Saudia (Saudi Arabian Airlines): Operating with restrictions. Some routes to affected areas suspended, but airspace partially open allowing limited services.
  • Royal Jordanian: Operating limited flights amid Jordan's airspace restrictions; cancellations to multiple regional destinations including Baghdad, Dubai, and Doha.
  • Oman Air: Limited operations resuming where possible. Routes to affected Gulf destinations remain suspended or restricted.
  • Kuwait Airways: Halted all flights to Iran. Routes to Gulf destinations (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha) suspended due to airspace closure.
  • Gulf Air: Temporarily suspended all operations.
    • Awaiting clearance from Bahrain authorities for safe resumption.
  • FedEx: Suspended services to/from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
    • Delays anticipated for adjacent regions.
  • Lufthansa: Suspended services to Dubai, Tel Aviv, Beirut, Amman, Erbil, Dammam, and Tehran; avoiding airspace over multiple countries.
  • Air India: Ongoing suspended services to/from UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Qatar.
  • United Airlines: Ongoing cancellations to Tel Aviv and Dubai.
  • Delta Air Lines: Suspended services to Tel Aviv.
  • Wizz Air: Suspended all flights to/from Israel, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Amman, and Saudi Arabia.
  • Other airlines with suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tel Aviv, etc.): British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Air France, KLM, IndiGo, Akasa Air, Turkish Airlines, Cathay Pacific, and American Airlines have suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs.

Operational Impact

  • Grounded Operations: Suspensions affect both dedicated freighters and belly-hold capacity on passenger aircraft, essential for high-volume shippers.
  • Rerouting & Capacity Strain: Remaining flights are diverting via Turkey or over the Arabian Sea, adding 2–5 hours per leg. 
    • The 30–50% increase in fuel burn not only elevates costs but also reduces payload capacity, limiting the volume of cargo that can be loaded per flight – even on rerouted services. 
    • Passenger carriers, handling 40-60% of regional air freight, are experiencing ongoing cancellations and delays, further constraining overall lift.
  • Hub Disruptions: Major cargo gateways like Dubai (the world's busiest cargo airport), Doha (Hamad International), and Abu Dhabi (Zayed) are operating at reduced capacity, with ground handling operations halted.
    • Warehouses are backlogged, especially for perishables, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and fertilizers.
    • Some airports like Dubai have Abu Dhabi have sustained direct strikes, complicating full recovery.
    • Since 2/28, there have been over 12,300 cancellations across key airports.

Global Cargo Context 

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

 

Specific Trade Lane Impacts

  • Asia-Europe: Capacity on Middle East–dependent routings is down 26%, while direct rerouted capacity has increased 13–14%.   
    • Transit times are extended 1–3 hours, with rates surging 50-100% due to scarcity and fuel costs
  • Asia-Africa: Many flows rely on Gulf hubs for transit, resulting in 20–30% capacity reductions, routing challenges, and expected rate increases. 
    • Backlogs are building for perishables and high value goods.
  • Intra-Middle East: Operations remain completely halted in affected areas, with no viable short term alternatives – driving indefinite delays and limited shifts to ground transport where conditions allow. 
  • Asia-Americas: While these routes typically bypass the Middle East, the 18% global capacity drop is tightening trans Pacific space and pushing rates up 20–50%.
    • Rerouted Asia–Europe cargo is spilling into Pacific capacity, creating additional competition and potential 1–3 day delays.
  • Europe-Americas: Indirect pressure from global rerouting is driving 20–50% rate increases, especially as Europe handles diverted Asia bound freight that strains westbound and trans Atlantic lanes.
  • Impacts to Capacity and Rates: Global air cargo capacity is now down 16–18% (a slight improvement from the prior 18%), with roughly 13% of the reduction tied directly to Middle East disruptions. 
    • Spot rates have surged up to 100%+ on key lanes, with variations from low single-digits to 50-70% in others. 

Cargo Prioritization During Crises

During severe capacity constraints, carriers prioritize shipments based on urgency, value, and contractual agreements. Typically, airlines allocate space to the following:

  • Humanitarian aid
  • Military cargo
    Perishables (e.g., fresh produce) and pharmaceuticals (time- and temperature-sensitive)
  • High-value goods, express bookings, and premium services (e.g., priority air or charter)
  • Contracted premium customers or long-term contract holders are usually rebooked faster during disruptions. 

General cargo often faces extended delays or space denials. Shippers with express, premium, or priority service agreements should leverage them now to secure capacity.

SEKO’S GUIDANCE

With major Middle Eastern airlines offline for multiple days, key lanes are experiencing 20-30% capacity reductions.

 

SEKO recommends importers and shippers:

  • Plan for extended delays, including multi-day impacts on time-sensitive freight and mounting congestion at alternative hubs.
  • Expect elevated spot rates, now increasing 50–100%+ on rerouted flights due to fuel costs and scarcity, with further increases expected as backlogs accumulate.
  • Evaluate alternative routings and modes, including Istanbul, Frankfurt, and ocean freight solutions where possible.
    • Disruptions may impact sectors such as diamonds, tech, and perishables.
  • Hold or reroute Gulf‑bound or urgent cargo, using unaffected corridors when possible.
  • Secure capacity early and engage with SEKO operations for updated contingency quotes or rebooking options.

The situation remains highly dynamic, and SEKO will continue issuing updates as developments occur.

If you have questions, please reach out to your SEKO representative, or email us at hello@sekologistics.com.