WHAT’S THE LATEST

Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan has led to reciprocal airspace closures. From April 24 through May 23, both countries are restricting each other’s commercial and cargo flights. This, combined with prior rerouting around Russia/Ukraine airspace, is forcing even longer detours for Asia-Europe and Asia-North America lanes. Prolonged restrictions could mirror the 2019 closure, which cost Pakistan $100 million in overflight fees.

As of 5/9, Mundra – the largest commercial port in India – has suspended services. The suspension includes halting shipping movement and cancelling berthing plans, with all vessels instructed to switch off their lights until daybreak. This action is a precautionary measure in response to a series of drone and missile attacks by Pakistan, which have been blocked by Indian defense systems. 

WHAT WE KNOW

Impacts to Cargo Operations 

  • Increased Operational Costs:

    • Indian carriers, such as Air India and IndiGo, must detour around Pakistani airspace, adding 2–4 hours to flight times for routes to Europe, the Middle East and North America. 

      • Increased fuel consumption by Indian airlines could lead to an additional weekly cost of $9.2M. 

      • Air India projects a $591M annual loss if the ban persists, driven by higher fuel burn and extended crew requirements.

    • Ultra-long-haul cargo flights, especially from Delhi to North America, now require refueling stops in cities like Vienna or Copenhagen, adding logistical complexity and costs. 

  • Reduced Cargo Capacity: 

    • To accommodate increased fuel loads for longer routes, airlines are reducing payload, which limits cargo capacity. 

      • This affects the volume of goods that can be transported per flight, particularly for high-demand routes from northern hubs like Delhi, Amritsar and Lucknow.

    • For example, in April, approximately 1,200 cargo flights from Delhi to international destinations were impacted, with carriers like IndiGo suspending services to Central Asian cities like Almaty and Tashkent due to range limitations.

  • Threat to Time-Sensitive Exports:

    • Perishables: India’s $500M perishable export market (e.g., mangoes, flowers, seafood) faces spoilage risks due to prolonged flight times. For example, a 4-hour delay on a Delhi-London cargo flight could render entire shipments unsellable, impacting exporters in Gujarat and Maharashtra.

    • Pharmaceuticals: India’s $50B pharmaceutical export industry, including vaccines and temperature-controlled drugs, is experiencing delivery backlogs, particularly from Hyderabad’s pharma corridor.

  • Competitive Disadvantage:

    • Foreign airlines, such as Etihad Airways, Thai Airways, can still use Pakistani airspace, giving them a competitive edge in India-Europe and India-Gulf cargo corridors. This threatens to divert business from Indian carriers, deepening economic losses. 

    • Middle Eastern carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways may gain market share if the closure persists, as their shorter routes allow for faster delivery and lower costs. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

Our team is actively monitoring developments day by day, ensuring we have the latest information to guide our clients. As additional suspensions and reroutings are announced, we will provide timely updates. 

If you have questions, please reach out to your SEKO representative, or email us at hello@sekologistics.com.