WHAT’S THE LATEST

Update as of May 4: The situation across the Middle East has significantly escalated following direct Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE on Monday, May 4, marking the most severe operational disruption since the crisis began more than 65 days ago.

Summary of May 4 events:

  • Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drone attacks on UAE territory, intercepted by UAE air defenses.
  • Explosions and interceptions reported across Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Sharjah areas, with debris causing civilian infrastructure damage and reported injuries.
    • Immediate, short-notice precautionary airspace closures and heavy flow restrictions implemented across UAE airspace, particularly affecting Sharjah (SHJ).
  • Reversal of recovery momentum following the UAE’s reopening on May 2, reintroducing acute volatility.

This escalation follows prolonged disruption triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation, including strikes on energy infrastructure, diplomatic missions, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

SEKO continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as new information becomes available.

WHAT WE KNOW

Closed or Restricted Airspaces

Civilian airspace across much of the Middle East remains closed or heavily restricted. Although UAE hubs rebounded after the May 2 reopening—often exceeding 1,000 daily departures—the May 4 missile and drone attacks have reversed momentum and are sustaining a 12–16% global air cargo capacity shortfall, with 12–13% directly tied to closures.

  • Full closures:
    • Iran
    • Iraq
    • Israel (largely closed to routine civil aviation; limited pre-approved cargo, repatriation, and select special permission flights permitted)
    • Kuwait
    • Syria
  • Partial/restricted closures:
    • Qatar
    • Bahrain
    • Jordan
    • Saudi Arabia (partial)
    • Pakistan (partial commercial airspace restrictions)
    • UAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah) due to the May 4 missile and drone attacks
  • Other affected areas:
    • Lebanon and Oman (indirect operational impacts)
    • Surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors remain a de facto no-fly zone for most commercial traffic

Grounded Operations – Major Airlines

Widespread cancellations continue across regional and global carriers:

  • Emirates: Achieved partial recovery ahead of May 4 attacks. Now experiencing immediate delays and cancellations.
  • Qatar Airways: Relief and select commercial flights active; full commercial operations remain heavily restricted due to airspace limitations.
  • Etihad Airways: Improving resumption; directly impacted by May 4 attacks.  
  • Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air: Limited services with many routes suspended.
  • FedEx & Other Carriers: Ongoing suspensions or heavy cancellations to affected hubs. May 4 attacks adding additional widespread disruptions.

Operational Impact

The May 4 direct attacks on UAE territory and resulting interceptions have reintroduced significant short-term risk and disruption despite the recent reopening.

  • Reroutes add 2-5 hours, with 30-50% higher fuel burn cutting payload and cargo volume per flight.
  • Hubs: Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah had returned close to pre-disruption operations (70-90%) following the May 2 reopening, now experiencing temporary operational halts, delays, and renewed backlogs following the May 4 attacks, especially for time-sensitive cargo.
  • Fuel Scarcity: Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since February 28 to $150-$200+ per barrel, increasing fuel burn sensitivity on rerouted flights (30–50% higher consumption) and reducing usable payload, particularly on long-haul operations.
    • U.S. jet fuel is up ~85-95% per gallon to ~$4.57-$4.88.
    • Airlines continue applying fuel surcharges, with some trimming schedules to conserve fuel.
    • Market price changes typically take 4–6 weeks to fully flow through to carrier operations (due to hedging, regulatory filings, and planning cycles).
    • Emerging scarcity concerns are contributing to secondary capacity pressure.

Global Cargo Context 

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

The UAE reopening on May 2 was a significant relief, but the May 4 escalation has reintroduced serious uncertainty and potential capacity shocks.

Specific Trade Lane Impacts

  • Asia-Europe: Most severely affected by the May 4 attacks; reroutes and fuel costs drive high rate spikes.
  • Asia-Africa: Significant ongoing disruption.
  • Asia-Americas / Europe-Americas / U.S. lanes: Indirect pressure and rates increased by 15-35%, with possible added delays resulting from the May 4 attacks.

Cargo Prioritization During Crises

During severe capacity constraints, carriers prioritize shipments based on urgency, value, and contractual agreements. Typically, airlines allocate space to the following:

  • Humanitarian aid
  • Military cargo
  • Perishables (e.g., fresh produce) and pharmaceuticals (time- and temperature-sensitive)
  • High-value goods, express bookings, and premium services (e.g., priority air or charter)
  • Contracted premium customers or long-term contract holders are usually rebooked faster during disruptions.

General cargo often faces extended delays or space denials. Shippers with express, premium, or priority service agreements should leverage them now to secure capacity.

Capacity & Pricing Outlook

  • Key trade lane capacities remain 20-30% below normal, driven by fuel and payload limits.
  • Spot rates have surged 50-100% on rerouted paths, with further increases likely with backlogs.
  • Expect continued reliance on Istanbul/Frankfurt alternatives or ocean where possible. 
  • Sectors like diamonds, tech, pharma, and fresh produce remain most vulnerable.

The attacks on May 4 may cause short-term spikes in rates, delays, and cancellations, particularly affecting UAE-dependent flows.

 

SEKO’S GUIDANCE - Regional Contingency Solutions

Israel:

SEKO can support shipments into Israel through the following routing options:

  • Air arrival into Amman (AMM), Jordan, followed by land transfer via the Sheikh Hussein Bridge to either an Israeli air or sea terminal, with final customs clearance at the selected terminal.
  • Air arrival into Athens (ATH) or Larnaca (LCA), followed by sea freight to Israel and transfer to an Israeli air or sea terminal for final customs clearance.
  • Air freight solutions are also available via Saudi Arabia.

UAE:

For shipments into or out of the UAE, SEKO offers the following alternatives:

  • Air freight shipments into or out of Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, and the other emirates can be routed through Muscat Airport in Oman for both imports and exports.
    • Air freight solutions are also available via Saudi Arabia.
  • Sea freight shipments into or out of the UAE or Qatar may be supported via Oman, using vessels with capacity for up to 400 containers – enabling continued movement of freight despite regional disruptions.

If you have questions, please reach out to your SEKO representative, or email us at hello@sekologistics.com.