The Lunar New Year (LNY), also known as Chinese New Year (CNY), Spring Festival or Tet Festival, has a significant impact on the global supply chain, particularly in industries that rely heavily on factories in Asia. Lunar New Year 2026 falls on Tuesday, February 17, ushering in the Year of the Fire Horse and triggering the most significant predictable disruption to global supply chains each year. For importers and exporters sourcing from Asia, effective planning must begin now—treating Chinese New Year not as a single week but as a six-to-eight-week operational window spanning late January through mid-March 2026. This guide provides the critical dates, country-specific holidays, impact analysis, and actionable preparation strategies needed to navigate this period successfully.
KEY DATES AND THE 2026 TIMELINE AT A GLANCE
Lunar New Year 2026 arrives later than in recent years, providing slightly more post-holiday shopping season recovery time for Western retailers. The Lantern Festival—which traditionally marks the end of Spring Festival celebrations—falls on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, meaning the cultural holiday period spans a full 15 days. However, the actual supply chain impact extends far beyond official celebrations.
The realistic operational timeline breaks into four distinct phases.
Pre-Holiday Slowdown (Late January)
The pre-holiday slowdown begins 3-4 weeks before Chinese New Year (CNY). During this period, factories start reducing production capacity, and workers begin migrating home as part of Chunyun (春运), the world's largest annual human migration, involving an estimated 3 billion trips.
Complete Shutdown (February 10-25)
Complete shutdown occurs between February 10-25, with most manufacturing operations ceasing entirely during this time. This period marks the peak of holiday-related disruptions.
Gradual Resumption (First 2-3 Weeks of March)
Following the holiday, the gradual resumption phase takes place in the first 2-3 weeks of March. Factories begin reopening but with only about 35% workforce capacity as workers gradually return.
Full Recovery (Mid-to-Late March)
Full recovery typically occurs by mid-to-late March, 4-6 weeks after the holiday begins, when manufacturing and workforce capacity return to normal levels.
What's more, up to 25% of factory workers may not return to their previous employers after CNY—they negotiate new positions, relocate, or exit manufacturing entirely. This workforce churn means even resumed factories face quality control challenges with less experienced staff.
OFFICIAL PUBLIC HOLIDAY DATES ACROSS ASIA
Understanding official government holidays versus actual business closures is essential for planning. In 2026, China has announced its longest-ever Spring Festival holiday: a record 9 days from Sunday, February 15 through Monday, February 23, 2026. This extension reflects government efforts to boost domestic consumption and reflects the cultural importance of family reunions.
| Country/Region | Off Dates | Duration | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Mainland | Feb 15-23, 2026 (Sun.-Mon.) | 9 days | Record-longest; adjusted working days on Feb 14 & 28 |
| Hong Kong/Macao SAR | Feb 17-19, 2026 (Tue.-Thu.) | 3 days | Business closures often extend 4-5 days |
| Taiwan | Feb 14-22, 2026 (Sat.-Sun.) | 9 days | Factories will operate at reduced capacity |
| Vietnam (Tết) | Feb 14-22, 2026 (Sat.-Sun.) | 9 days | Manufacturing hub affected simultaneously |
| South Korea (Seollal) | Feb 14-18, 2026 (Sat.-Wed.) | 5 days | Massive domestic travel disruption |
| Malaysia | Feb 17-18, 2026 (Tue.-Wed.) | 2 days | Chinese-owned businesses may close 3-7 days |
| Singapore | Feb 17-18, 2026 (Tue.-Wed.) | 2 days | Most operations continue with reduced staff |
HOW CHINESE NEW YEAR DISRUPTS GLOBAL FREIGHT AND LOGISTICS
The ripple effects extend far beyond factory floors. Understanding each disruption vector helps logistics managers anticipate and mitigate problems.
Factory Shutdowns Create a Production Vacuum
Factories in China, Vietnam, and other countries affected by the Lunar New Year holiday will often shut down for a week or longer. Many facilities stop accepting new orders 6-8 weeks before CNY, meaning production capacity for Q1 deliveries must be secured by mid-December at latest. This is particularly impactful for industries such as electronics, textiles, and industrial manufactury, where production lines may halt or operate at minimal capacity. Post-holiday, the labor shortage extends recovery and many do not return to full capacity until mid-March: factories that normally employ 1,000 workers might restart with only 350, limiting output even when machinery is operational.
SEKO Tip: Please plan your orders and factory-to-port delivery well in advance, ideally by December, to account for potential delays in production.
Freight Rates Follow a Predictable Surge Pattern
Ocean freight rates typically begin climbing mid-December as shippers rush to move cargo before shutdowns. General Rate Increases (GRIs) are announced every 1-2 weeks through January, with Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) adding as well. Air freight faces similar pressures. The fundamental problem is demand-capacity mismatch: air cargo demand grew 10% year-over-year while capacity expanded only 2%, pushing load factors to 80%. Rates typically don't normalize until 2-3 weeks after CNY, and only if capacity returns to normal—which isn't guaranteed given current market conditions.
SEKO Tip: Book your shipments as early as possible to avoid rate hikes. Consider less-than-container load (LCL) shipping if full container load (FCL) space is unavailable.
Port Congestion and Blank Sailings Compound Delays
Port congestion is common during Lunar New Year, both before and after the holiday. As factories close, a backlog of shipments often accumulates at major ports, causing container shortages, longer dwell times, and delays in customs clearance. Ports like Shanghai, Singapore, and Ho Chi Minh City are particularly prone to congestion. In the past years, major transshipment hubs experienced 14-21 day delays during peak pre-CNY periods. US West Coast ports see 20-30% volume increases as importers front-load shipments. Container availability tightens at origin ports just as demand peaks.
Carriers respond with blank sailings—cancelling scheduled voyages to manage capacity and maintain rate levels. Historical data shows carriers reduced Asia-US capacity by 19-20% during CNY periods between 2016-2019. In current market conditions, with alliance restructuring complicating operations, blank sailing announcements may come with minimal notice, leaving booked cargo stranded.
SEKO Tip: Be flexible with your port selection. Consider using less-congested ports or alternate shipping routes to minimize delays. Stay in close communication with your logistics partners to stay updated on schedule changes and plan alternative transport options if needed.
Inland Transportation Essentially Stops
Perhaps the least appreciated disruption is the complete paralysis of trucking within China during CNY week. Truck drivers participate in Chunyun (春运) like everyone else. During CNY, available capacity can drop to near zero. Sea and air transport continue operating, but goods can hardly move from factory to port or airport. Routes that usually take one to two days may take as long as a week or longer, even after operations resume, due to driver unavailability and traffic restrictions. Furthermore, the price will be doubled or tripled during CNY.
SEKO Tip: Build buffer time into your shipping and delivery schedules to account for workforce shortages.
INDUSTRIES FACING THE HIGHEST DISRUPTION RISK
With over 50 years of experience in navigating supply chain challenges, SEKO serves a diverse range of industries around the world. Not all sectors experience CNY equally. Several factors determine vulnerability: sourcing concentration in China, just-in-time inventory practices, Q1 demand timing, and product complexity.
Electronics & Semiconductors top the vulnerability list. Factories in Greater China dominates PCB manufacturing, circuit boards, and numerous electronic components, with many parts having single-source suppliers. The industry already faces disruptions from Red Sea diversions and US-China technology restrictions. Consumer electronics demand peaks during Q4 holidays, requiring Q1 restocking that directly conflicts with CNY shutdowns. Specific vulnerable products include semiconductors, display panels, batteries, smart home devices, and computing equipment.
Automotive Manufacturers operating on just-in-time models face acute exposure. Even minor delays in parts procurement can halt entire assembly lines. Electric vehicle supply chains are particularly exposed, with China supplying most of the critical battery materials and components.
Retail & E-commerce companies depending on continuous replenishment face inventory depletion during extended shutdowns. Valentine's Day, Easter, and spring inventory needs conflict directly with CNY recovery periods. Fast-moving goods simply cannot wait 4-6 weeks for restocking without sales impact.
Apparel & Fashion brands face the challenge of manufacturing spring/summer collections during CNY—exactly when capacity disappears. Lower margins limit ability to absorb freight premium costs for expedited shipping.
CURRENT LOGISTICS TRENDS COMPOUNDING 2026 DISRUPTIONS
Several ongoing challenges will amplify CNY 2026 impacts beyond typical seasonal patterns.
Tariff Volatility Complicates Sourcing Decisions
US-China tariff policy remained highly volatile through 2025. While current tariff reductions following October 2025 negotiations provide some relief, the reciprocal tariff suspension expires November 2026—creating uncertainty around post-CNY 2026 import costs. The "China Plus One" diversification strategy itself faces challenges when tariffs apply broadly to alternative sourcing countries.
Red Sea Crisis Continues Extending Transit Times
Houthi attacks have persisted through 2024-2025, forcing vessels to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds approximately 4,000 miles and 10-14 days to Asia-Europe voyages. Despite a January 2025 Israel-Hamas ceasefire, carriers including Maersk remain cautious about Red Sea returns. Asia-Europe freight rates remain 3-4 times higher than pre-crisis 2023 levels. For CNY 2026 planning, this means orders must be placed even earlier to account for extended transit.
Carrier Alliance Restructuring Creates Uncertainty
February 2025 saw major shifts in shipping alliance structures. The 2M Alliance dissolved, with Maersk and MSC splitting. The new Gemini Cooperation (Maersk plus Hapag-Lloyd) launched a hub-and-spoke model targeting 90% schedule reliability—but first-year teething problems are inevitable. MSC now operates independently as the world's largest carrier, while the Ocean Alliance extended through 2032. Four major alliances instead of three increases competition but may also lead to more aggressive blank sailing programs during CNY when carriers seek to manage overcapacity.
Overcapacity Meets Capacity Management
A wave of ultra-large container vessels ordered during the pandemic is now entering service, creating theoretical overcapacity. However, carriers will likely implement aggressive blank sailings around CNY 2026 to prevent rate collapse—meaning available capacity may not match fleet size.
HOW TO PREPARE YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN FOR LUNAR NEW YEAR 2026
To minimize disruptions and keep your supply chain running smoothly during the Lunar New Year period, advance planning is essential. Here are some practical steps to take in preparation for the holiday season:
Build 30-40% Buffers for Inventory Planning
For high-velocity products and items with Q1 seasonality, maintain 30-40% additional inventory above average monthly sales. Standard lead times should be extended significantly: allow 30-45 days for manufacturing (extending to 60-90 for complex products), 15-20 days for quality checks, and 7-10 days for inland transport. Add 2-3 weeks specifically for CNY buffer. The formula for CNY-specific safety stock is: (Average Daily Sales × Extended Lead Time Buffer) + (30-40% × Monthly Sales).
Order Placement Deadlines Work Backwards from February
For complex or custom products, place orders 5-6 months before CNY (September-October 2025). Standard production orders should be placed 4-5 months ahead (October-November 2025). All production orders should be finalized 8-10 weeks before CNY (early December 2025), with rush order cut-offs at 3-4 weeks before (late January 2026).
Ocean freight requires booking 3-4 weeks before planned departure for both FCL and LCL shipments, with actual shipment 2-3 weeks before CNY. Air freight bookings should be secured 1-2 weeks before CNY. Even with confirmed bookings, containers may be rolled to subsequent vessels—build buffer time accordingly.
Freight Booking Strategies That Secure Capacity
Book early and diversify: Lock in vessel space in October-November for January-February shipments. Consider LCL for smaller volumes—delays affect only portions of shipments rather than entire orders. Split large orders across multiple bills of lading to minimize roll impact if one container gets bumped. Premium guaranteed-space services, while more expensive, ensure priority during peak demand.
Consider alternative ports: When Shanghai and Shenzhen face congestion, alternatives include Xiamen (high-efficiency customs), Lianyungang (rail connections), Ningbo-Zhoushan (world's busiest by tonnage but often less container congestion), Qingdao (DG Cargo expertise), and Dalian (northern routes). Trade-off: 1-3 additional transit days versus congestion avoidance.
Supplier Communication Should Start Immediately
Key questions to ask suppliers now:
- Exact shutdown dates and last production day;
- When full operations resume;
- Last date to accept new orders before CNY;
- What proportion of workers returned after previous CNY;
- Contingency plans for urgent issues during shutdown;
- Emergency contact during holiday if problems arise.
Request supplier CNY production calendars 6-8 months ahead. Confirm production schedules 4-5 months ahead. Verify cargo-ready dates and schedule third-party inspections 2-3 months ahead. Expect slower or no responses from mid-January through early February—call or WeChat to confirm critical details during CNY, rather than relying on email.
Budget for significant cost increases
Plan for 20-30% higher freight costs during the CNY period:
- Spot rates potentially spiking 50% in tight markets.
- Budget for Peak Season Surcharges of $1,500-$2,500 per container.
- Trucking within China will cost 50-100% more when available.
Cost-saving opportunities exist for those planning ahead: lock in freight rates via advance contracts before mid-December pricing spikes. Contact SEKO expert for a tailored proposal.
EARLY ACTION DETERMINES CNY SUCCESS
Lunar New Year 2026 presents both predictable challenges and compounding uncertainties from Red Sea disruptions, alliance restructuring, and tariff volatility. The 9-day official China holiday—the longest ever—signals extended closures that will test supply chain resilience. Companies that treat CNY as a 6-8 week operational event rather than a week-long holiday, and that begin preparation in mid-2025, will navigate Q1 2026 successfully. Those waiting until December or January will face premium freight costs, capacity shortages, and inventory gaps.
The Year of the Fire Horse arrives February 17, 2026—start planning today.
