As global supply chains continue to evolve amid trade policy shifts, China's upcoming adjustments to export tax rebates represent a critical development for businesses sourcing or exporting from Asia. Effective April 1, 2026, China will eliminate value-added tax (VAT) export rebates for photovoltaic (PV) products, including solar cells, modules, inverters, and related components. This follows a prior reduction from 13% to 9% in December 2024. For battery products, such as lithium-ion batteries and primary cells, rebates will drop from 9% to 6% between April 1 and December 31, 2026, before being fully phased out on January 1, 2027. Additional products like polyvinyl chloride (PVC), phosphorus chemicals, certain inputs for polyether production, and others are also impacted.

Importantly, ceramics, glass (including industrial and photovoltaic glass), and batteries will also be affected. These categories could impact a broader range of companies beyond pure renewables, including those in construction, automotive, electronics, and energy storage sectors that rely on these materials or components.

These changes, announced by China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration on January 9, 2026, aim to curb overcapacity, promote high-quality development, and reduce trade frictions by addressing concerns over subsidized exports and price dumping. For importers and exporters, this could lead to higher costs, accelerated shipments in Q1 2026, and potential disruptions in freight and logistics. In this guide, SEKO Logistics provides key timelines, impact analyses, and actionable strategies to help you navigate these shifts and maintain supply chain resilience.

Key Dates and the 2026 Timeline at a Glance

The policy adjustments create a multi-phase disruption window, with immediate effects on export pricing and shipment volumes. Here's a breakdown:

  • Pre-Change Rush (January-March 2026): Expect a surge in exports as manufacturers and buyers accelerate orders to capture remaining rebates. This could mirror "panic buying" seen in the PV sector, driving up module prices by 5-10% short-term and straining capacity.

  • Implementation Phase (April 1-December 31, 2026): Full rebate cancellation for PV products; battery rebates reduced to 6%. Export costs rise by up to 9% for affected goods, potentially passed on to buyers.

  • Full Phase-Out (January 1, 2027 onward): Battery rebates eliminated entirely, leading to sustained cost increases and possible market consolidation.

  • Overall Disruption Window: 4-6 months of volatility, from late Q1 2026 into mid-year, with lingering effects on pricing and trade flows.

The applicable rebate rate is determined by the export date on customs declarations, so precise timing is essential.

 

Affected Products Across Key Categories

The changes target specific HS codes, focusing on clean energy, chemicals, and related materials. Below is a summary table of major impacted categories:

Category

Products Included

Current Rebate Rate

Change Effective April 1, 2026

Full Elimination Date

Photovoltaic (PV)

Solar cells, modules, inverters, glass, conductive glass, quartz products

9%

Canceled (0%)

April 1, 2026

Batteries

Lithium-ion, primary lithium, zinc-air, energy storage batteries

9%

Reduced to 6%

January 1, 2027

Glass & Ceramics

Industrial glass, photovoltaic glass, ceramic products (e.g., roof tiles)

Varies (up to 13%)

Canceled or reduced (0% for many)

April 1, 2026

Chemicals/Plastics

PVC (HS 39041090), phosphorus chemicals, methanol, ethylene glycol

13% (PVC)

Canceled (0%)

April 1, 2026

Other

Chemically modified oils/fats, certain polyether inputs

Varies

Canceled or reduced

April 1, 2026

Sources indicate 22 Battery products, 249 PV and related products are affected in total, with no changes to consumption tax rebates. Businesses dealing in these areas should review their HS codes immediately.

Appendix 1: List of Photovoltaic and Related Products.pdf

Appendix 2: List of Battery Products.pdf

SEKO Tip: Use tools like the China Customs website or consult with SEKO's trade compliance experts to verify product classifications and model cost impacts.

 

How Export Tax Rebate Changes Disrupt Global Freight and Logistics

Removing rebates effectively increases export costs for Chinese manufacturers, who may respond by raising prices, reducing output, or shifting production overseas. Key disruptions include:

  • Freight Rate Surges and Capacity Constraints: Q1 2026 rush could spike ocean and air freight rates by 20-30%, similar to post-rebate-cut trends in other sectors. Expect blank sailings and congestion at ports like Shanghai and Ningbo as volumes peak.

  • Price Volatility: PV module prices may surge initially due to stockpiling, then stabilize higher long-term (up 6-9%). Battery costs could rise gradually, affecting EV and energy storage supply chains. Notably, for a top ocean client in the PV sector, canceling approximately 9% of export tax rebates is expected to increase PV product costs by 0.06-0.07 yuan per watt. Cost pressures from raw material markets also warrant attention—unlike previous polysilicon price hikes, silver is now the primary driver of rising costs. From 2025 to early 2026, silver paste alone will increase the industry's average cost per watt by 0.1 to 0.2 yuan.

  • Inland and Cross-Border Delays: Trucking and rail capacity may tighten in China, with premiums doubling during the pre-April window. Customs processing times could extend by 7-14 days amid volume spikes.

  • Global Trade Ripples: Higher costs may reduce China's export competitiveness, benefiting non-Chinese suppliers but risking shortages for reliant markets like Europe and the US.

SEKO Tip: Diversify carriers and modes—consider LCL (less-than-container-load) for smaller shipments or air freight for urgent high-value items like batteries.

 

Industries Facing the Highest Disruption Risk

Sectors heavily reliant on Chinese exports will feel the pinch most acutely:

  • Renewable Energy: PV and battery manufacturers/exporters face immediate cost hikes, impacting solar projects and energy storage systems. Global installers may see delayed deliveries and higher procurement costs.

  • Automotive/EVs: Battery rebate cuts could raise EV component prices, affecting assembly lines and end-consumer pricing.

  • Glass, Ceramics & Construction: Impacts on industrial glass, photovoltaic glass, and ceramic products may raise costs for building materials, solar installations, and specialty applications.

  • Chemicals and Plastics: PVC exporters to markets like India may shift strategies, leading to regional supply gaps.

  • Electronics and Manufacturing: Indirect effects on supply chains for devices using solar, battery, or glass tech.

Less affected: Industries with diversified sourcing or non-rebate-dependent products.

 

Current Logistics Trends Compounding 2026 Disruptions

Several factors amplify the rebate changes:

  • Trade Tensions: Ongoing US-China tariffs and EU anti-dumping probes could compound cost pressures, encouraging reshoring.

  • Overcapacity in China: The policy aims to end "rat race" competition, potentially leading to factory consolidations and reduced output.

  • Global Freight Dynamics: Red Sea disruptions and carrier alliances (e.g., Gemini Cooperation) may overlap, exacerbating rate volatility.

  • Sustainability Shifts: As China promotes green transitions, expect more policies favoring high-tech exports over low-margin ones.

SEKO Tip: Monitor indices like the Drewry World Container Index for early signals of rate changes and adjust contracts accordingly.

 

How to Prepare Your Supply Chain for Export Tax Rebate Changes 2026

Proactive planning is key to minimizing impacts. Start now with these steps:

  1. Assess Exposure: Audit your supply chain for affected products, including ceramics, glass, and batteries. Calculate cost increases using formulas like: New Export Cost = Original Cost / (1 - Rebate Rate). For a 9% rebate loss, this means ~10% effective hike.

  2. Build Buffers: Stockpile 20-30% extra inventory pre-April, extending lead times by 4-6 weeks. Place orders by mid-February for complex items.

  3. Diversify Sourcing: Explore alternatives in Vietnam, India, or the US. SEKO can assist with supplier vetting and rerouting.

  4. Optimize Freight: Book space 6-8 weeks ahead; use multi-modal options to avoid bottlenecks. Budget for 15-25% higher logistics costs in Q2.

  5. Communicate with Partners: Request updated calendars and pricing from suppliers. Negotiate contracts with rebate contingencies.

  6. Leverage Technology: Use SEKO's visibility tools for real-time tracking and scenario modeling.

SEKO Tip: For batteries, prioritize shipments before the full 2027 phase-out to lock in partial rebates.

 

Early Action Determines Success Amid Policy Shifts

Treating these rebate changes as a 4-6 month event window is crucial—delays could lead to shortages, inflated costs, or lost competitiveness. With China's exports powering global clean energy transitions, adapting swiftly will separate resilient supply chains from the rest. Start planning today to turn potential disruptions into opportunities.
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