WHAT’S THE LATEST

Update as of March 23: Airspace shutdowns across the Middle East continue following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation – including strikes on energy infrastructure, diplomatic missions, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has now entered its 25th day with continued limited military activity, intermittent missile and drone threats, and no full de-escalation in sight. Civilian airspace remains closed or severely restricted across much of the region.

 

Key Developments:

  • Airspace volatility remains high: UAE and Qatar experienced short‑notice restrictions earlier this week due to threat activity; most partial reopenings for limited flights have held. European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) advisories remain in effect through at least 3/27.
  • Disruption & capacity impact: 26,000+ flights impacted to date, driving persistent global backlogs. The global capacity shortfall has eased slightly to an estimated 13–18%, with approximately 12–13% tied directly to Middle East airspace closures.
  • Delays & pricing: Time‑sensitive cargo delays now averaging 4–8 days. Air freight rates remain stabilized at elevated levels, with South Asia–Europe up approximately 70% and South Asia–North America up roughly 58%.
  • Fuel costs: Global aviation fuel prices remain sharply elevated at $99.40 per barrel (up 4.8% since late February), driven by oil market volatility. Airlines are actively passing these higher fuel costs through to customers via fuel surcharges.
  • Secondary impacts: Continued Strait of Hormuz disruption is shifting additional volume to air freight, further tightening global capacity.

SEKO continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as new information becomes available.

WHAT WE KNOW

Closed or Restricted Airspaces

Civilian air traffic, including cargo operations, faces severe disruptions due to the following countries implementing full or partial closures:

  • Full closures:
    • Iran
    • Israel (largely closed to routine civil aviation; only pre approved cargo, repatriation, and select special permission flights permitted)
    • Iraq
    • Kuwait
    • Syria
  • Partial closures:
    • United Arab Emirates (UAE), including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah (heavily restricted; short-notice suspensions possible)
    • Qatar
    • Bahrain (heavily restricted)
    • Jordan (nightly restrictions from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m.)
    • Saudi Arabia (restrictions near Iraq and the Persian Gulf, with some easing in southern sectors)
    • Pakistan (partial commercial airspace restrictions)
  • Other affected areas:
    • Lebanon and Oman (indirect operational impacts)
    • Surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors remain de facto commercial no-fly zones

Grounded Operations – Major Airlines

Widespread cancellations continue across regional and global carriers:

  • Emirates: Partial recovery progressing, with approximately 50–60% of pre-crisis services operating in select corridors.
    • Freighter and belly capacity remain constrained; many Gulf and Asia routes remain suspended.
  • Qatar Airways: Relief and select commercial flights active; full commercial operations remain heavily restricted due to airspace limitations.
    • 29 Boeing 777 freighters remain largely idle, significantly impacting global cargo capacity.
  • Etihad Airways: Partial operations resumed, with limited passenger and cargo flights, primarily on select Europe and Asia routes.
  • Saudia (Saudi Arabian Airlines): Operating with restrictions. Some routes to affected areas suspended, but airspace partially open allowing limited services.
  • Royal Jordanian: Operating limited flights amid Jordan's airspace restrictions; cancellations to multiple regional destinations including Baghdad, Dubai, and Doha.
  • Oman Air: Limited operations resuming where possible. Routes to affected Gulf destinations remain suspended or restricted.
  • Kuwait Airways: Halted all flights to Iran. Routes to Gulf destinations (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha) suspended due to airspace closure.
  • Gulf Air: Operations remain temporarily suspended pending regulatory clearance.
  • FedEx: Suspended services to/from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
    • Delays anticipated for adjacent regions.
  • Other airlines with suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tel Aviv, etc.): Lufthansa, Air India, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Wizz Air, British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Air France, KLM, IndiGo, Akasa Air, Turkish Airlines, Cathay Pacific, and American Airlines have suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs.

Operational Impact

  • Suspensions continue to impact dedicated freighters and belly capacity, which is critical for 40-60% of regional freight. 
  • Reroutes add 2-5 hours, with 30-50% higher fuel burn cutting payload and cargo volume per flight. 
  • Hubs remain partially idle with persistent backlogs.
    • Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi hubs at 50-60% reduced capacity, with ground handling limited and warehouses backlogged. 
      • Significant impacts to perishables, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and ecommerce.

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

Global Cargo Context 

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

Specific Trade Lane Impacts

  • Asia-Europe: Capacity on Middle East–dependent routings is down 26-39%; experiencing delays, payload cuts and rates surging 50-80%.
    • South Asia–Europe rates up approximately 70% to $4.37 per kg.
  • Asia-Africa: Many flows rely on Gulf hubs for transit, resulting in 20–30% capacity reductions, routing challenges, and expected rate increases. 
    • Backlogs are building for perishables and high-value goods.
  • Intra-Middle East: Operations remain largely halted in affected areas, with no viable short-term  alternatives – driving indefinite delays and limited shifts to ground transport where conditions allow.
  • Asia-Americas: While these routes typically bypass the Middle East, the 13-18% global capacity drop is tightening trans-Pacific  space and pushing rates up 18–38%.
    • Rerouted Asia–Europe cargo is spilling into Pacific capacity, creating additional competition and potential 1–4 day delays.
  • Europe-Americas: Indirect pressure from global rerouting is driving 18–38% rate increases, especially as Europe handles diverted Asia-bound freight that strains westbound and trans-Atlantic lanes.
  • U.S. Capacity and Rates: With minimal direct U.S.-Middle East impact, global shortfall is driving 18-38% rate increases on Asia-U.S. and Europe U.S. trade lanes. 
    • As demand shifts, trans-Pacific/trans-Atlantic freighters are experiencing tighter capacity and 1-4 day delays.

Cargo Prioritization During Crises

During severe capacity constraints, carriers prioritize shipments based on urgency, value, and contractual agreements. Typically, airlines allocate space to the following:

  • Humanitarian aid
  • Military cargo
  • Perishables (e.g., fresh produce) and pharmaceuticals (time- and temperature-sensitive)
  • High-value goods, express bookings, and premium services (e.g., priority air or charter)
  • Contracted premium customers or long-term contract holders are usually rebooked faster during disruptions.

General cargo often faces extended delays or space denials. Shippers with express, premium, or priority service agreements should leverage them now to secure capacity.

Capacity & Pricing Outlook

  • Key trade lane capacities remain 20-30% below normal, driven by fuel and payload limits. 
  • Spot rates have surged 50-100% on rerouted paths, with further increases likely with backlogs.
  • Expect continued reliance on Istanbul/Frankfurt alternatives or ocean where possible. 
  • Sectors like diamonds, tech, pharma and fresh produce remain most vulnerable.

SEKO’S GUIDANCE - Regional Contingency Solutions

Israel:

SEKO can support shipments into Israel through the following routing options:

  • Air arrival into Amman (AMM), Jordan, followed by land transfer via the Sheikh Hussein Bridge to either an Israeli air or sea terminal, with final customs clearance at the selected terminal.
  • Air arrival into Athens (ATH) or Larnaca (LCA), followed by sea freight to Israel and transfer to an Israeli air or sea terminal for final customs clearance.

UAE:

For shipments into or out of the UAE, SEKO offers the following alternatives:

  • Air freight shipments into or out of Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, and the other emirates can be routed through Muscat Airport in Oman for both imports and exports.
  • Sea freight shipments into or out of the UAE or Qatar may be supported via Oman, using vessels with capacity for up to 400 containers – enabling continued movement of freight despite regional disruptions.

The situation remains highly dynamic, and SEKO will continue issuing updates as developments occur.

If you have questions, please reach out to your SEKO representative, or email us at hello@sekologistics.com.