WHAT’S THE LATEST

Update as of March 16: Airspace shutdowns across the Middle East continue following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 and subsequent Iranian retaliation – including strikes on energy infrastructure, diplomatic missions, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption has now entered its 18th day with no de-escalation in sight, and civilian airspace remains closed or severely restricted across much of the region.

 

Over 25,000 flights have been canceled by major Middle East carriers, contributing to ongoing backlogs and a sharp decline in global air cargo capacity, which has eased slightly to a 15-20% decrease, 12-13% directly impacted by Middle East closures. Time-sensitive cargo delays are averaging 3-7 days. Carriers could activate war-risk surcharges.

 

Air freight rates remain stabilized at elevated levels—Asia-Europe at an increase of 45-80%, and Asia-North America up 15-35%. Global aviation fuel prices remain elevated at $99.40 per barrel, a cumulative increase of 4.2% since February 28, driven by oil market volatility. Additional complications from the Strait of Hormuz closure could indirectly strain global supply chains, further shifting demand to air freight and exacerbating capacity issues.

 

SEKO continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates as new information becomes available.

WHAT WE KNOW

Closed or Restricted Airspaces

Civilian air traffic, including cargo operations, faces severe disruptions due to the following countries implementing full or partial closures:

  • Full closures:
    • Iran
    • Israel
    • Iraq
    • Qatar
    • Bahrain
    • Kuwait
    • Syria
    • Yemen
  • Partial closures:
    • United Arab Emirates (UAE), including Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah
    • Jordan (nightly restrictions from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m.)
    • Saudi Arabia (restrictions near Iraq and the Persian Gulf, with some easing in southern sectors)
    • Pakistan (partial commercial airspace restrictions)
  • Other affected areas:
    • Lebanon and Oman (indirect operational impacts)
    • Surrounding Middle East/Persian Gulf corridors have become significant commercial no-fly zones

These restrictions continue to disrupt overflight routes, inbound/outbound traffic, and key transit hubs, severely impacting Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf cargo flows.

Grounded Operations – Major Airlines

Widespread cancellations continue across regional and global carriers:

  • Emirates: Partial operations resumed, with approximately 40-50% of pre-crisis freighter and passenger services restored. However, many routes remain suspended due to ongoing airspace restrictions.
  • Qatar Airways: Commercial operations remain suspended due to airspace, though relief and select commercial flights are active.
    • Affects 29 Boeing 777 freighters and extensive belly capacity.
  • Etihad Airways: Partial operations resumed, with limited commercial flights.
    • Some evacuation and cargo flights operating selectively, but many services remain halted.
  • Saudia (Saudi Arabian Airlines): Operating with restrictions. Some routes to affected areas suspended, but airspace partially open allowing limited services.
  • Royal Jordanian: Operating limited flights amid Jordan's airspace restrictions; cancellations to multiple regional destinations including Baghdad, Dubai, and Doha.
  • Oman Air: Limited operations resuming where possible. Routes to affected Gulf destinations remain suspended or restricted. 
  • Kuwait Airways: Halted all flights to Iran. Routes to Gulf destinations (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha) suspended due to airspace closure.
  • Gulf Air: Temporarily suspended all operations.
    • Awaiting clearance from Bahrain authorities for safe resumption.
  • FedEx: Suspended services to/from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
    • Delays anticipated for adjacent regions.
  • Other airlines with suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs (Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tel Aviv, etc.): Lufthansa, Air India, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Wizz Air, British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Air France, KLM, IndiGo, Akasa Air, Turkish Airlines, Cathay Pacific, and American Airlines have suspended or canceled routes to affected hubs.

Operational Impact

  • Suspensions continue to impact dedicated freighters and belly capacity, which is critical for 40-60% of regional freight.  
  • Reroutes add 2-5 hours, with 30-50% higher fuel burn cutting payload and cargo volume per flight. 
  • Hubs remain partially idle with persistent backlogs.  
    • Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi hubs at 40-50% reduced capacity, with ground handling limited and warehouses backlogged.
    • Significant impacts to perishables, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and ecommerce.

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

Global Cargo Context 

Middle East carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad, Saudia, Royal Jordanian, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, and Gulf Air, support approximately 25-30% of global air cargo volume annually, with Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi serving as primary transit hubs for nearly all Asia-Europe, Asia-Africa, and intra-Gulf flows. Prolonged airspace closures sever this critical lifeline, eliminating substantial belly and freighter capacity.

Specific Trade Lane Impacts

  • Asia-Europe: Capacity on Middle East–dependent routings is down 26-39%; experiencing delays, payload cuts and rates surging 50-80%.
  • Asia-Africa: Many flows rely on Gulf hubs for transit, resulting in 20–30% capacity reductions, routing challenges, and expected rate increases. 
    • Backlogs are building for perishables and high value goods. 
  • Intra-Middle East: Operations remain largely halted in affected areas, with no viable short term alternatives – driving indefinite delays and limited shifts to ground transport where conditions allow.
  • Asia-Americas: While these routes typically bypass the Middle East, the 15-20% global capacity drop is tightening trans Pacific space and pushing rates up 15–35%.
    • Rerouted Asia–Europe cargo is spilling into Pacific capacity, creating additional competition and potential 1–4 day delays.
  • Europe-Americas: Indirect pressure from global rerouting is driving 15–35% rate increases, especially as Europe handles diverted Asia bound freight that strains westbound and trans Atlantic lanes.
  • U.S. Capacity and Rates: With minimal direct U.S.-Middle East impact, global shortfall is driving 15-35% rate increases on Asia-U.S. and Europe U.S. trade lanes.
    • As demand shifts, trans-Pacific/trans-Atlantic freighters are experiencing tighter capacity and 1-4 day delays.

Cargo Prioritization During Crises

During severe capacity constraints, carriers prioritize shipments based on urgency, value, and contractual agreements. Typically, airlines allocate space to the following:

  • Humanitarian aid
  • Military cargo
  • Perishables (e.g., fresh produce) and pharmaceuticals (time- and temperature-sensitive)
  • High-value goods, express bookings, and premium services (e.g., priority air or charter)
  • Contracted premium customers or long-term contract holders are usually rebooked faster during disruptions.

General cargo often faces extended delays or space denials. Shippers with express, premium, or priority service agreements should leverage them now to secure capacity.

Capacity & Pricing Outlook

  • Key trade lane capacities remain 20-30% below normal, driven by fuel and payload limits. 
  • Spot rates have surged 50-100% on rerouted paths, with further increases likely with backlogs.
  • Expect continued reliance on Istanbul/Frankfurt alternatives or ocean where possible. 
  • Sectors like diamonds, tech, pharma and fresh produce remain most vulnerable.

SEKO’S GUIDANCE - Regional Contingency Solutions

Israel:

SEKO can support shipments into Israel through the following routing options:

  • Air arrival into Amman (AMM), Jordan, followed by land transfer via the Sheikh Hussein Bridge to either an Israeli air or sea terminal, with final customs clearance at the selected terminal.
  • Air arrival into Athens (ATH) or Larnaca (LCA), followed by sea freight to Israel and transfer to an Israeli air or sea terminal for final customs clearance.

UAE:

For shipments into or out of the UAE, SEKO offers the following alternatives:

  • Air freight shipments into or out of Dubai, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, and the other emirates can be routed through Muscat Airport in Oman for both imports and exports.
  • Sea freight shipments into or out of the UAE or Qatar may be supported via Oman, using vessels with capacity for up to 400 containers – enabling continued movement of freight despite regional disruptions.

The situation remains highly dynamic, and SEKO will continue issuing updates as developments occur.

If you have questions, please reach out to your SEKO representative, or email us at hello@sekologistics.com.